The Future Is Here: Unpacking The Coming Wave by Mustafa Suleyman

In The Coming Wave: Technology, Power, and the Twenty-First Century’s Greatest Dilemma, Mustafa Suleyman, co-founder of DeepMind and current CEO of Microsoft AI, delivers a compelling exploration of the transformative potential and existential risks posed by emerging technologies, primarily artificial intelligence (AI) and synthetic biology. Published in 2023, the book argues that these technologies represent a “coming wave” that will reshape human society, economies, and governance in unprecedented ways.

Suleyman begins by contextualizing technological progress as a series of historical waves, from agriculture to the Industrial Revolution, each driven by human needs and innovation. The current wave, defined by AI and synthetic biology, is unique due to its speed, accessibility, and potential to amplify human capabilities. AI systems, evolving from tools like ChatGPT to autonomous agents, are poised to manage businesses, government services, and personal lives. Synthetic biology, with advances like CRISPR, enables the redesign of life itself, promising breakthroughs in medicine and agriculture but also risks, such as engineered pathogens.

The central dilemma, which Suleyman terms the “containment problem,” is how to harness these technologies’ benefits—unprecedented prosperity, health advancements, and solutions to global challenges like climate change—while mitigating their dangers. These include cyberattacks, misinformation, job displacement, and even catastrophic misuse by bad actors, such as creating deadly viruses in garage labs. Suleyman warns that the democratization of these technologies makes containment difficult, as they are increasingly accessible and affordable.

The book is structured in four parts:

1. Historical Context: Suleyman traces the evolution of technology and its societal impacts, highlighting patterns of rapid proliferation.
2. The Coming Wave: He details the capabilities of AI and synthetic biology, emphasizing their dual potential for good and harm.
3. The Containment Problem: Suleyman explores why containment is challenging, citing historical failures to regulate technologies like nuclear weapons and the internet.
4. Solutions: He proposes a ten-step plan for containment, including technical safety measures, audits, international cooperation, and leveraging supply chain “choke points” (e.g., advanced chip manufacturers). He emphasizes the need for a cultural shift toward ethical responsibility in tech development.

Suleyman acknowledges the tension between optimism and pessimism. While he believes these technologies can usher in a “new dawn for humanity,” he stresses that without proactive governance, they could destabilize nation-states and global order. He advocates for a “narrow path” between catastrophe (uncontrolled proliferation) and dystopia (authoritarian surveillance), urging collective action to ensure technology serves human needs.

Book Review

The Coming Wave is a thought-provoking, if sobering, read that balances insider expertise with accessible storytelling. Suleyman’s credentials as an AI pioneer lend authority to his warnings, and his collaboration with writer Michael Bhaskar ensures the book is engaging, even for readers unfamiliar with tech jargon. At 352 pages, it’s dense with ideas but avoids overwhelming with unnecessary technical detail, making it suitable for a broad audience.

Strengths

• Timely and Urgent: The book arrives at a critical moment when AI and biotech are dominating headlines. Suleyman’s predictions—AI running warehouses, diagnosing diseases, or enabling cyberattacks—are grounded in current trends, making the stakes feel immediate.
• Balanced Perspective: Unlike techno-optimist manifestos or doomsday screeds, Suleyman offers a nuanced view. He celebrates AI’s potential to solve climate change or eradicate diseases while candidly addressing risks like misinformation and engineered pandemics. His “pessimism of the intellect, optimism of the will” approach, as noted by reviewers, resonates as both pragmatic and hopeful.
• Actionable Solutions: The ten-step containment plan, while ambitious, provides a concrete framework. Suggestions like auditing AI systems and harmonizing international regulations are practical, even if challenging to implement.
• Engaging Prose: Suleyman’s anecdotes, such as his experiences at DeepMind witnessing AI’s rapid evolution, add a personal touch. The inclusion of a glossary and historical analogies (e.g., the Cold War’s containment of Soviet power) makes complex ideas digestible.

Weaknesses

• Repetition and Verbosity: Some readers, as noted on Goodreads, find the book repetitive, with Suleyman frequently reiterating the “wave is coming” metaphor. The core argument could be condensed, as the 300-page length feels excessive for a lay audience.
• Vague Solutions: While the containment strategies are thoughtful, critics argue they lack specificity or feasibility. For instance, Suleyman admits containment seems “impossible” yet insists it “must be possible,” leaving readers with a sense of unresolved tension. His dismissal of regulation as inadequate without fully exploring alternatives frustrated some reviewers.
• Limited Visual Aids: The absence of charts or diagrams to illustrate concepts like AI’s exponential growth or biotech’s accessibility is a missed opportunity, especially for visual learners.
• Overemphasis on Speculation: Technical readers may crave more data over speculative scenarios, such as the hypothetical lone actor creating a virus. This focus can feel alarmist, though Suleyman clarifies he’s addressing near-term risks, not sci-fi futures.

Who Should Read This?

The Coming Wave is essential for anyone interested in technology’s societal impact—business leaders, policymakers, educators, or curious citizens. It’s particularly valuable for those seeking a primer on AI and biotech without wading through academic papers. However, readers looking for a step-by-step blueprint for containment or a purely optimistic tech narrative may find it less satisfying.

Final Verdict

Mustafa Suleyman’s The Coming Wave is a captivating, if unsettling, wake-up call. It succeeds as both an accessible introduction to AI and synthetic biology and a provocative call to action. While its repetitive style and occasionally vague solutions detract from its impact, the book’s urgency, insider perspective, and balanced tone make it a standout in the crowded field of tech literature. As Bill Gates called it, this is a top pick for understanding AI’s future. Whether you’re excited or terrified by the coming wave, Suleyman’s book will leave you better prepared to navigate it.